Coming soon…
The probability of a non-rolling card is not affected by the rolling cards, because we keep drawing if we draw one of those.
Therefore the sum of the probabilities of all cards does not equal 100%
.
But the sum of the probabilities of all non-rolling cards does equal 100%
.
The probability of a rolling card is shown as the probability sum a single attack, because that’s what matters for our average damage output.
Because it’s a sum, the probability of a rolling card can go above 100%
in theory, even though we might not draw any.
This is to take account the benefit for when we draw multiple rolling modifiers in the same attack.
For example, in an (impossible) deck of 2
non-rolling cards and 4
rolling cards, the probability sum is 133%
:
The probability of a single rolling card can ignore the other rolling cards (because they cause another draw),
so we can relax the deck to that 1 rolling card under investigation and the 2 non-rolling cards,
which makes the probability of a single rolling card 1/3 = 33%
.
Because we have 4
rolling cards, the probability sum is 4 * 33% = 133%
.
This doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed to draw a rolling card, even though it’s above 100%
.
It does mean that on average, we’ll benefit 133%
from the +1 rolling attack modifier on those 4
cards.
Multipliers (such as miss and critical hit) affect rolling modifier damage too.
No indication yet of damage reliability (Average damage suffers from the flaw of averages).
No support yet for other effect cards
No support yet for advantage and disadvantage
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